Below are four sample daily updates. I will be pleased to send additional daily and/or intraday updates upon request:
Have you been hearing since late July 2011 about how you should be "reducing risk" and "looking for value" and "seeking out shares with high-quality dividends"? Practicaly every financial advisor repeats this nonsense after a major pullback for the stock market, but when it is truly timely to sell, they tell you to "get back into the market". If you actually follow this advice, you will repeatedly buy high and sell low. Far too many were bullish toward equities in the spring and early summer of 2011, and far too many have been bearish in recent months. Until everyone you know is eager to buy stocks, you can be sure that selling them would be a mistake.
Do you remember hearing commodity analysts on cable TV scream incessantly for months in 2008 about a "massive commodities breakout"--only to see the biggest commodity collapse in history? And then when they hyped about a "deflationary depression" day after day at the end of 2008 and in the beginning of 2009, we thereafter had the strongest equity and commodity rally since the Great Depression? For more than a year, we have once again been hearing about a "new bull market" for commodities and an alleged "imminent demise" of the greenback, and yet the U.S. dollar index has continued its little-recognized bull market which began more than 3-1/2 years ago on March 16, 2008. It is critical to know when media hype is biased nonsense with no factual basis.
Have you noticed that practically no one talks about the behavior of top corporate insiders? If you had been reading True Contrarian, you would have not only been buying long-dated U.S. Treasuries near all important lows since 2006, but you would also have established substantial short positions from 2007 through August 2008 in global equity funds to profit handsomely from 2008's massive worldwide stock-market correction. A similar if perhaps slower plunge for risk assets will likely lead to a major global equity bottom in 2013-2014. While the media repeatedly emphasize buying stocks, it is probably even more important to know when to purchase long-dated U.S. Treasuries and their funds including TLT and ZROZ which are consistently among the top performers in any bear market--and often result in greater profits than selling short stocks while providing consistent dividends exceeding 4% annualized.
When almost everyone was gloomy toward equities, commodities, junk bonds, and practically all other risk assets in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, True Contrarian was one of the few advisory services which boldly proclaimed a bottom and, more importantly, recommended specific funds and shares for purchase before everyone else realized that we were on the verge of a historic worldwide reversal of fortune. GDX, KOL, and RSX were among my top picks; KOL was the 8th-best-performing mutual fund of more than 18 thousand funds in 2009, while RSX was 11th best.
If you're tired of constantly buying high and selling low, then you should consider a subscription to True Contrarian. Each day except for Saturdays--that's six days per week--you will get a timely email recommendation that consistently goes in the opposite direction of whatever the unanimous herd is doing. My philosophy is simple: open any position only when the risk/reward scenario is most favorable and least popular, and close it once it has become clearly unfavorable and wildly desired.
Whenever I make any trade, I send an intraday email telling readers exactly what I bought or sold, how much (as a percentage of my total net worth), and at exactly what price. That way, readers can exactly mimic my actions, and can know exactly how much profit or loss is created once these positions are later closed.
Even more importantly, I give frequent lessons on money management: how to allocate your assets across sector groups; how to build a ladder of orders; how to be patient to wait for a few ideal trades instead of rushing to do dozens of mediocre ones. I explain how the various investment classes are closely interrelated, instead of trying to invest with blinders to the rest of the worldwide financial markets.
I also provide detailed email support to all subscribers, answering any questions about asset allocations and giving customized guidance for those who desire help with how to place a ladder of orders, or which funds to emphasize based upon the subscriber's individual financial situation.
For a limited time, this subscription will be available at an annual rate of $179.50 (U.S. dollars) per year. Should you decide at any time to cancel, you will receive a full, pro-rated refund for the unused portion. If, instead, you would prefer a shorter term of subscription, you can select three months for $75. You are permitted to change the designated email address as many times as you like, free of charge, during the lifetime of the subscription. Keep in mind how few newsletter writers got the basic trends correct since 2007.
To make it completely clear exactly what a one-year subscription involves, here is first a list of what will NOT be included:
NO DAY TRADING: I am not a day trader, and will not recommend buying something on a Tuesday in order to sell it on Wednesday, or even on the following Wednesday. I usually hold positions for a period of at least several weeks, often several months, and sometimes for a year or two. On the rare occasion that I do recommend closing a position which was recently opened, it is because I realize that an unexpected change in circumstances caused my original analysis to be incorrect, and that one should therefore take a small loss before it grows into a big loss.
NO PSYCHOBABBLE: I am not here to act as a shrink. So many web sites, when their recommendations are going poorly, resort to worthless cliches such as "you've got to hang in there for the long run" or "given the twin deficits, gold's bull market is sure to resume eventually". If you need constant psychological reassurance, you're better off subscribing to a different newsletter, or you might consider contacting one of those psychics that advertises on TV at 2:30 a.m.
NO WISHY-WASHY OPINIONS: Regardless of whether my predictions are accurate or not, I will not speak out of both sides of my mouth. I will never say to hold something as long as it doesn't go below a particular price, since that's sure to confuse readers. I know of one very well-known web site that was relatively accurate in being bullish on gold and its shares for most of 2002 (and kept bragging loudly about it), but after making the disastrous decision to remain bullish for months beyond the peak, suddenly turned "neutral" on gold in early March 2003 when HUI plunged below 120. At the key buying opportunity of that year, faithful readers of that web site didn't know what to do with their gold mining shares. Should they sell them? Or just hold on and pray? When they should have been buying aggressively, they were totally baffled. By the time this web site turned bullish again, HUI had risen 25% from its low. In my opinion, the worst sin of a newsletter writer is to confuse readers with ambiguity or with all kinds of complicated scenarios that are impossible to follow. If I recommend buying a particular fund at 17, I will recommend buying more if it drops to 16. If I recommend selling some at 44, I will recommend selling more if it rises further to 45. If I am wrong, I will be wrong with bells on, loudly and clearly.
Now that you know what the service will NOT include, here is a list of what I WILL do my best to provide on a timely basis:
CONSISTENT, INTELLIGENT ANALYSIS: Regular readers of my web site know that I strongly value an easily understandable explanation of what the future will bring in the financial markets. Anyone can develop a plausible story of why something happened last month; very few can explain logically what will happen next month. If one understands how reliable patterns in the financial markets characteristically develop, then one can more confidently invest. Having a solid grasp of the underlying forces is critical in having the courage to add to a position which initially moves in the opposite direction.
TIMELY, CLEAR RECOMMENDATIONS: If a particular fund appears to be making an important bottom on a Thursday at 10:15 a.m., I will not wait until after it rallies 7% by the close and then release a useless update saying "you should have bought this morning". I will immediately send an email stating that it should be purchased NOW. As soon as possible, I will send a followup email listing exactly which funds to buy, in what proportion, and what percentage of your entire account should be devoted to the purchase. It is usually the case that bottoming or topping is a process, rather than an event, so that only a small percentage of one's total intended position should be committed at any given time. I will clearly identify why particular funds or shares are a better bargain at any given moment, and exactly what limit prices should be used, or whether market orders are preferable.
ALL POSITIONS WILL BE CLOSED IN A TIMELY FASHION: A huge percentage of newsletter writers are always recommending buying certain shares, but never seem to be selling them. Other writers mysteriously abandon positions which are performing poorly. To me, this is ridiculous. Knowing when to sell is often even more important than knowing when to buy, since profits don't really exist until something which has been bought is finally sold. Sometimes, the only correct action is to act swiftly and close out a position at a loss. All opening positions will always be diligently followed through all the way until they are closed, without exception.
A PRECISE PLAN OF ACTION WILL BE DEVELOPED: The financial markets often act in unexpected ways. Having a detailed plan of action, so that one responds intelligently to whatever happens, is usually far more important than any other factor in achieving success in the financial markets. I will explain how to establish long-term goals, and how to make periodic adjustments in order to achieve those objectives. The principles of money management, the ideal way to accumulate positions, and how to optimize one's asset allocation will all be discussed in detail.
ANY QUESTIONS? If you have any questions about this subscription service, or about anything else, click here to contact me, or send an email to sjkaplan@truecontrarian.com. I will gladly send a few recent daily updates upon request.
IF YOU ARE STILL INTERESTED, this subscription is being offered at $179.50 (U.S. dollars) per year. You can choose instead to pay $75 for a trial period of three months. All subscriptions are fully refundable for their pro-rated unused portion. If you decide to subscribe on March 17, 2012, then your subscription will continue through March 17, 2013. You will receive sufficient notice before expiration, so that you will be able to continue receiving your subscription without interruption. You can resubscribe at any time for as many years as you like; your expiration date will automatically be updated accurately by PayPal to reflect the full duration of the extension. For example, if your current expiration date is May 5, 2012 and you resubscribe today for two years, then your new expiration date will be May 5, 2014. Note #1: if you want your subscription to be sent to an email address which differs from your PayPal email address, please list your desired email address where it says "E-Mail Address, If Different:". Note #2: if you do not have an email address, then please do not subscribe. The reason is that any hardcopy equivalent would not be sufficiently timely. You are permitted to change the designated email address as many times as you like without charge during the lifetime of the subscription. Please understand that the information contained in the email is not intended to be resent to nonsubscribers or posted on any publicly accessible web site, and any such action if discovered will be considered as legally binding you to pay for a full-year subscription for each such nonsubscriber.
TO SUBSCRIBE: PayPal and all major credit cards are accepted no matter where you reside; simply click on the button below, which has a link to an official, secure PayPal page for payment. If you prefer instead to send a check, then please send one from a U.S. bank or, if you wish, kindly remit a money order in U.S. dollars from any bank, U.S. or otherwise. My address is Steven Jon Kaplan, P. O. Box 1894, New York, NY 10008-1894, USA. Your subscription will begin as soon as payment is verified. If you are paying by check or money order, please make it payable to Steven Jon Kaplan, and be sure to include your email address (very important!).